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Why Are There So Many Comebacks In The Premier League This Season?

Why Are There So Many Comebacks In The Premier League This Season?

John Stones' dramatic 95th-minute winner for Manchester City against Wolves on Sunday 20th October was significant for multiple reasons. Firstly, the England defender's goal extended the points gap between Pep Guardiola's side and Arsenal, their main rivals for the Premier League title during the last two seasons. Secondly, it underlined City's consistent ability to grind out results in the late stages of games even when they haven't been at their best. But thirdly, and perhaps most interestingly, the last-gasp winner rubber-stamped a serious trend that has been developing in the early months of the Premier League season: an upward hike in the number of comeback wins on show each week.

In football, there are few things better than a team completing a dramatic turnaround to win a game having previously been in a losing position. But this has been a common story in the English top flight during the 2024/25 campaign, at least so far. In this article, we'll be providing you with the data to back up that trend and exploring why it might be that comeback wins have become more commonplace.

Have There Been More Premier League Comebacks This Season?

Comeback wins have long been a key part of the special drama and excitement that the English Premier League provides fans in the UK and abroad. But the statistics show that this season there's been a substantial increase in the number of comeback wins in the league. At the time of writing, there have been 17 comeback wins out of a total of 80 matches played in the 2024/25 Premier League season.

Of those wins, five came in one weekend, gameweek eight, with Man City's win at Wolves and Southampton's dramatic capitulation against Leicester City both showing the prevalence of this type of game. This is pretty unusual, with Opta Sports writing that "only one day in Premier League history has ever witnessed more comeback victories than Saturday (four in seven games): Boxing Day 2013."

These figures mean that in total, 21.25% of games so far this season have resulted in a comeback win, a remarkably high proportion of fixtures. Before this year, the highest percentage of comeback wins stood at 16.6%, recorded in the previous season (2023/24).

During most of the 2010s, comeback wins over the entire season failed to reach the 50 mark, but in 2020/21 that total was surpassed and in 2023/24 the record was smashed as a total of 63 comeback wins were recorded. The fact that we're already a quarter of the way to that total with just eight games played suggests this campaign could see the most comeback wins in Premier League history.

The fact that these types of results seem to be increasing two years running tells us that the last two months haven't just been a series of freak results, but that this is a growing trend within the league. Shortly, we'll be exploring why that is. But first, we're going to quickly run through some of the most exciting comeback games of the season so far.

The Best Premier League Comebacks This Season

Here are a few of the most memorable comeback wins that have taken place in the English top flight during the 2024/25 season so far.

Brighton & Hove Albion 3-2 Spurs

When the full time whistle blew on this Super Sunday cracker, Spurs boss Ange Postecoglou cut a forlorn figure, and you can see why. His side came out looking sharp and fluid from the first kick of the game, and were 2-0 up at half-time away at Brighton having played some delightful football during the first 45. But an early 2nd-half goal from Yankuba Minteh turned the game on its head, fuelling Brighton with energy and hope; Spurs capitulated, and were completely unable to halt the momentum that built up in the home side's favour. A 66th-minute winner from an in-form Danny Welbeck completed the Seagulls' dramatic turnaround.

Aston Villa 3-1 Wolves

Colombian striker Jhon Duran has made quite the impact at Aston Villa, scoring four goals in eight Premier League games so far this season and rapidly gaining a reputation as a stellar super-sub, capable of coming off the bench late and causing absolute havoc. He was at his best during this comeback win against West Midlands rivals Wolverhampton Wanderers, who opened the scoring in the first half before being stunned by a barrage of attacks that saw Villa score three goals in the final 20 minutes including a stoppage time sealer from Duran.

Manchester City 2-1 Wolves

Wolves were the unlucky side again when Man City rocked up at Molineux on 20th October; Gary O'Neil's side equipped themselves well against the current league champions and even came close to winning themselves, but Guardiola's players piled on the pressure as they looked for a winner in the closing stages. Corner after corner eventually became too much and Stones eventually burst the net with a 98th-minute set piece header made even more dramatic by the long VAR delay and offside debate that followed in the immediate aftermath.

Southampton 2-3 Leicester City

When Claudio Ranieri's Foxes won the Premier League title in 2015/16, they were known for grinding out tight results with a series of 1-0 wins heading into the closing stages of the season. Because of that recent memory, and Leicester's long spell out of the English top flight, it may not be a huge surprise to learn that this is the first time Leicester have ever come back from two goals down at half-time to win a Premier League match (they've been in this predicament a total of 64 times). After a poor first half against Southampton, a fellow newly-promoted side managed by Russell Martin, Leicester completed a dramatic second-half turnaround to extend the distance between themselves and the relegation zone.

Why Are There So Many Comebacks In The Premier League This Season?

A number of factors could be responsible for this increase in the number of Premier League games resulting in a comeback win. The obvious one that comes to mind is the issue of fixture congestion, which has caused extensive debates in the world of football in recent weeks as players and coaches have complained about the number of matches they are expected to play during a calendar year. Rumours of a potential player strike circulated widely after City midfielder Rodri appeared to hint that things had got out of hand, although it's unclear whether this is likely to materialise any time soon. 

Whatever your view on this issue, it's certainly plausible that the increased physical load on Premier League players — with many now expected to play extra Champions League games as part of the expanded format, with the revamped Club World Cup also increasing fixture congestion and potentially threatening to be a tipping point next year — is behind this shift. Increased tiredness and fatigue could make it easier for a team to capitulate to the pressures of a late opposition surge, fuelling this uptick in comeback victories. 

Another potential consideration could be the increased importance of substitutes in the modern game; the Premier League introduced the five-substitution rule permanently at the start of the 2022/23 season, and with clubs like Chelsea stockpiling talent at an unprecedented level, many coaches have a larger number of game-changing players available for them to bring off the bench to impact proceedings in the second half. This reality is highlighted by the fact that a team like Chelsea can start with Jaden Sancho on one wing and Noni Madueke on the other, and finish the game with Pedro Neto and Christopher Nkunku in their place.

Another important thing to think about is the increased amount of stoppage time being played in elite-level football across the world. This development first started hitting the headlines at the Qatar World Cup in 2022, when numerous group-stage matches ended up being played with over 10 minutes of stoppage time at the end of halves, confusing and frustrating fans and players before the move (designed to increase ball-in-play time) was adapted to and stoppage time began decreasing. A drive to punish time-wasting and encourage the ball to remain in play for more minutes has also occurred in the Premier League, and we now regularly see six, seven, or eight (or even more) minutes of stoppage time played at the end of matches. This increased period available for the scoring of a comeback winner is also likely to have boosted the likelihood of a late win being secured.

Given that this trend is spread across the Premier League from top to bottom, we can surmise that numerous other tactical ideas have been playing into this narrative too. Pep Guardiola's growing taste for half-time double substitutions has had an impact for the Manchester side, while Ange Postecoglou's strict adherence to a fluid attacking gameplan (and apparent lack of a Plan B) has left Spurs vulnerable to comeback defeats. These specific in-game factors, which change from team to team, have also undeniably been impacted by the other broader ideas we touched on above. As a result, the 2024/25 has (so far) been the season for the comeback kings. The question is: who will be the next team to mount a stunning turnaround in the EPL?

If you want to find out about the structures and strategies that allow these Premier League teams to launch dramatic comebacks and compete at the very top end of European football, check out guide to the best-run clubs in the UK, as per the Fair Game Index.